Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and each label, but associations among labels may exist even after accounting for effects of predictor variables. In this paper, we present a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) framework to model the problem. BART is a nonparametric and flexible model structure capable of uncovering complex relationships within the data. Our adaptation, MLCBART, assumes that labels arise from thresholding an underlying numeric scale, where a multivariate normal model allows explicit estimation of the correlation structure among labels. This enables the discovery of complicated relationships in various forms and improves MLC predictive performance. Our Bayesian framework not only enables uncertainty quantification for each predicted label, but our MCMC draws produce an estimated conditional probability distribution of label combinations for any predictor values. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing its performance with a set of models, including the oracle model with the correct functional form. Results show that our model predicts vectors of labels more accurately than other contenders and its performance is close to the oracle model. An example highlights how the method's ability to produce measures of uncertainty on predictions provides nuanced understanding of classification results.

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions.

Intelligence relies on an agent's knowledge of what it does not know.This capability can be assessed based on the quality of joint predictions of labels across multiple inputs.In principle, ensemble-based approaches can produce effective joint predictions, but the computational costs of large ensembles become prohibitive.We introduce the epinet: an architecture that can supplement any conventional neural network, including large pretrained models, and can be trained with modest incremental computation to estimate uncertainty.With an epinet, conventional neural networks outperform very large ensembles, consisting of hundreds or more particles, with orders of magnitude less computation.The epinet does not fit the traditional framework of Bayesian neural networks.To accommodate development of approaches beyond BNNs, such as the epinet, we introduce the epistemic neural network (ENN) as a general interface for models that produce joint predictions.

Many machine learning applications involve jointly predicting multiple mutually dependent output variables. Learning to search is a family of methods where the complex decision problem is cast into a sequence of decisions via a search space. Although these methods have shown promise both in theory and in practice, implementing them has been burdensomely awkward. In this paper, we show the search space can be defined by an arbitrary imperative program, turning learning to search into a credit assignment compiler. Altogether with the algorithmic improvements for the compiler, we radically reduce the complexity of programming and the running time. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach on multiple joint prediction tasks. In all cases, we obtain accuracies as high as alternative approaches, at drastically reduced execution and programming time.

Efficiently identifying the right trajectories for training remains an open problem in GFlowNets. To address this, it is essential to prioritize exploration in regions of the state space where the reward distribution has not been sufficiently learned. This calls for uncertainty-driven exploration, in other words, the agent should be aware of what it does not know. This attribute can be measured by joint predictions, which are particularly important for combinatorial and sequential decision problems. In this research, we integrate epistemic neural networks (ENN) with the conventional architecture of GFlowNets to enable more efficient joint predictions and better uncertainty quantification, thereby improving exploration and the identification of optimal trajectories. Our proposed algorithm, ENN-GFN-Enhanced, is compared to the baseline method in GFlownets and evaluated in grid environments and structured sequence generation in various settings, demonstrating both its efficacy and efficiency.

Autonomous driving system aims for safe and social-consistent driving through the behavioral integration among interactive agents. However, challenges remain due to multi-agent scene uncertainty and heterogeneous interaction.

Intelligent agents need to know what they don't know, and this capability can be evaluated through the quality of joint predictions.